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Outlook for Wednesday, November 13

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060937 SPC AC 060937

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Modest severe potential remains apparent during parts of the extended period.

A mid/upper low over the central High Plains at 12Z Saturday should pivot northeastward towards the Upper Midwest as it becomes an open wave. A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies should overlap with the northwestern periphery of a modified low-level moisture plume emanating north from the western Gulf. This plume is expected to be narrower to the north-northwest of the Ark-La-Tex. Combined with probable ongoing convection in the warm conveyor ahead of the weak surface front, the overall severe threat on D4 should be confined/low-end.

While outlier guidance indicates the possibility of TC Rafael approaching the coastal LA vicinity this weekend, ensemble trends and latest NHC forecast suggest it will probably remain over the western Gulf.

Guidance consensus still indicates an amplified upper trough should progress into the West early next week, with this feature reaching the central states mid-week. This may eventually overlap a broadening warm/moist sector emanating north from the western Gulf across the south-central states. But poor run-to-run continuity and large ensemble spread persist with the evolution of this trough.

..Grams.. 11/06/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, November 6: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, November 7: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Friday, November 8: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, November 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, November 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, November 11: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, November 12: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, November 13: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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