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Outlook for Thursday, November 14

Outlook Summary

A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 141625

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS

### SUMMARY

A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado could occur across parts of coastal North Carolina this evening/tonight.

Coastal Carolinas

Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in proximity to the Gulf Stream.

Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/14/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, November 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Friday, November 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, November 16: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, November 17: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, November 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, November 19: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, November 20: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, November 21: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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