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Outlook for Saturday, November 16

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 140825

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

Synopsis

A mid/upper-level shortwave is forecast to emerge out of the deep trough across the West and move across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Saturday. A trailing shortwave trough is expected to dig southeastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico, and potentially evolve into a mid/upper-level low by the end of the period. A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern Plains, as a surface ridge shifts eastward across much of the eastern CONUS.

Early-stage moisture return is expected to commence across the southern Plains on Saturday, as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains low. This early moisture return is expected to be insufficient for any appreciable surface-based destabilization. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the Great Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A general thunderstorm area has been included for this isolated thunder potential, though uncertainty remains rather high.

..Dean.. 11/14/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, November 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Friday, November 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, November 16: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, November 17: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Monday, November 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Tuesday, November 19: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, November 20: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, November 21: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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