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Outlook for Thursday, November 28

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240932 SPC AC 240932

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Run-to-run model trends indicate generally faster solutions to the evolving upper trough forecast to move across the central and eastern CONUS.

On Wed/D4, a positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper MS Valley into the Plains, with 500 mb speed max over 70 kt. This feature is now forecast to be over the OH/TN Valley by 12Z Thu/D5, with attendant cold front roughly from WV to southern MS/LA at that time.

Given this trough speed and geometry, winds around 850 mb will be west-southwest to west at 40-50 kt. Elevated thunderstorms seem likely given the antecedent dry air mass in place ahead of the returning low-level moisture, most notably from KY/TN southward into northern MS/AL/GA through 12Z Thu/D5. Surface-based storms may develop across southern areas late along the front, with non-zero damaging-gust potential given substantial deep-layer shear and wind magnitude.

ECMWF-based solutions indicate much less storm coverage going into Thu/D5 as the front accelerates across the Southeast, though some lingering storms may be ongoing along the front early. Given these trends, no severe areas will be issued.

..Jewell.. 11/24/2024

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, November 24: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, November 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, November 26: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, November 27: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, November 28: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, November 29: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, November 30: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, December 1: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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