Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like lofi music and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

Outlook for Sunday, January 19

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140856 SPC AC 140856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 4/Fri into Day 5/Sat from roughly east Texas into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast during this time, before a deeper large-scale trough quickly follows on its heels. A surface low will deepen over OK/TX during the day Friday, arriving over the Lower MS Valley by Day 5/Sat morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for northward transport of Gulf moisture across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity. However, 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain fairly far south across southeast TX into southern LA through early Saturday. Furthermore, the timing of the upper trough/surface low coincident with moisture return will occur overnight. Forecast soundings show strong low-level inhibition, with only weak elevated instability. While vertical shear will be strong, supporting some potential storm organization, overall thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to support more than isolated strong storms. Thunderstorm potential could shift east toward the central Gulf coast on Day 5/Sat, but the upper trough is forecast to weaken and higher-quality moisture will remain very near the coast. Similar lackluster thermodynamic profiles as those expected on Day 4/Fri indicate severe potential will likely remain limited.

Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will settle across much of the country during the second half of the forecast period, ending thunderstorm potential through early next week.

..Leitman.. 01/14/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, January 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, January 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, January 16: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, January 17: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Saturday, January 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, January 19: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, January 20: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, January 21: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.