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Outlook for Wednesday, January 22

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150901 SPC AC 150901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

A weak surface low and attendant cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast on Day 4/Sat. Ahead of this feature, low-level moisture will increase along the central and northeast Gulf coast vicinity, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining within the I-10 corridor. More modest moisture is possible across a broader area from central MS/AL into GA. While mid/upper flow will be quite strong, thermodynamics will largely limit a greater severe risk. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms, and perhaps a couple of strong storms, are possible near the immediate Gulf coast. Potential remains too low however to include 15 percent probabilities at this time.

By Day 5/Sun, the aforementioned cold front will move offshore. Strong Arctic high pressure will build southeast and east across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the end of the forecast period, resulting in a cold, dry, and stable airmass.

..Leitman.. 01/15/2025

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, January 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, January 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, January 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, January 18: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, January 19: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, January 20: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, January 21: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, January 22: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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