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Outlook for Tuesday, February 4

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 311009 SPC AC 311009

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

A generally low-amplitude upper pattern, characterized by fast westerly flow aloft, is expected to prevail through the medium-range period. Global models are in reasonably good agreement with most of the synoptic-scale details into day 6 (Wednesday), after which differences become increasingly apparent.

Days 4-5, the generally zonal flow pattern will persist, though some minor amplification of troughing over the West is expected Day 5, as the western Canada low drifts southward toward/into the Pacific Northwest. A rather subtle, lead shortwave trough is forecast to shift across southern California into the Desert Southwest late day 5 (Tuesday), and into the central Plains through the first half of day 6. An associated, central Plains surface low is forecast to evolve, with a cold front shifting out of the southern Rockies toward the southern Plains. With favorably strong flow aloft, any elevated destabilization sufficient to support convective development may result in some potential for hail across central portions of the country. At this time, however, expectations for weak instability overall, and likelihood that the boundary layer remains stable, should preclude appreciable surface based thunderstorm potential. In any case, any potential for severe weather appears too low to warrant areal inclusion at this time.

The surface front should continue eastward/southeastward across the U.S. days 6-7, but even weaker instability expected ahead of the boundary should preclude any appreciable severe weather potential.

..Goss.. 01/31/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, January 31: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, February 1: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, February 2: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, February 3: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, February 4: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Wednesday, February 5: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Thursday, February 6: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Friday, February 7: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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