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Outlook for Saturday, February 8

Outlook Images

any severe low / uncertain

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

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Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040959 SPC AC 040959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Feb 04 2025

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range models are in reasonably good agreement through day 6 (Sunday), in terms of large-scale features. Substantial divergence begins thereafter, casting substantial uncertainty into the forecast beyond the upcoming weekend.

Day 4, as an upper short-wave trough crossing the Northeast moves into/across the Canadian Maritimes, the quasi-zonal flow pattern over the U.S. will continue. Weak amplification of the flow will occur over the West with time, however, as a short-wave trough moves across the Rockies. As this occurs, frontal low development is expected along the persistent west-to-east front lying from the southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region. However, with only weak instability expected near the developing low, and eastward along the front, convection is forecast to remain disorganized.

Day 5, the upper wave is forecast to continue eastward across the central and northern Plains through the day, and into and across the Great Lakes region overnight. The associated frontal low – initially progged to lie over the Oklahoma vicinity, will deepen as it shifts east-northeastward with time, reaching the northeast through the end of the period. The trailing surface front will sharpen and advance southeastward, extending from the Mid-Atlantic region southwestward to coastal Texas late. While showers and a few thunderstorms will be associated with the frontal advance, weak instability anticipated at this time should again hinder convective intensity.

Day 6, as the low moves offshore and the front continues advancing steadily southeastward, it should clear the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts during the evening, lingering only across Florida through the end of the period. The continued trend of weak instability, as well as weakening flow with southward extent, should hinder prospects for more robust convection.

..Goss.. 02/04/2025

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, February 5: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Thursday, February 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, February 7: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, February 8: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Sunday, February 9: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Monday, February 10: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain
Tuesday, February 11: ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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