Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like lofi music and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

Outlook for Wednesday, February 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050936 SPC AC 050936

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range global models appear to be in reasonable large-scale agreement into the first half of day 6 (Monday). At this point, more substantial differences begin to emerge with respect to the amplification of the flow field across the U.S., as the main western U.S. trough begins a slow eastward advance. These differences are significant in that speed and timing of the advance of this system will influence surface cyclogenesis along what has been a persistent, roughly west-to-east baroclinic zone across the south-central and southeastern CONUS. Stronger/inland low development along this front would potential bring an increase in severe-weather potential, but this scenario is far too uncertain at this point to highlight through the second half of the period.

Earlier in the period, a frontal low along the surface baroclinic zone is forecast to shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity, and east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley area day 4, before reaching the southern New England coastal vicinity by the start of day 5. However, very weak warm-sector instability is expected at this time, which should preclude severe risk. As the low deepens northward into the Canadian Maritimes, the trailing cold front should settle back into its recently persistent position from the southern Plains to the Southeast, and remain there into the Day 6 period ahead of the advancing western upper trough. Again, with weak instability near the boundary and southward into the warm sector, severe weather is not expected.

..Goss.. 02/05/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, February 5: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Thursday, February 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, February 7: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, February 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, February 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, February 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, February 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.