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Outlook for Thursday, February 13

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, February 13	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, February 14	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, February 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, February 16	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, February 17	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070947 SPC AC 070947

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however.

Central Gulf Coast Vicinity

Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models–the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored.

By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights.

..Wendt.. 02/07/2025

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, February 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, February 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, February 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, February 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, February 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, February 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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